Newspapers to begin recovery in 2007

MediaPost Publications reports that industry analysts and organizations are predicting that newspapers’ decline will slow and maybe even stop in 2007. Although it’s far too soon to tell if the print newspaper market is bottoming out, there are a few encouraging signs. A forecast from the Newspaper Association of America expects total print advertising revenue to fall 1.1 percent in 2006 compared to 2005, but then stabilize in 2007. The NAA figures for 2007 take into consideration the continuing losses in advertising by local automobile dealerships and classified ads, including job recruiting. The NAA’s prediction is counting on other sources of revenue, including a small recovery in revenue from national advertisers and more display ads from retailers such as grocery chains and electronics stores. An independent analysis from Deutsche Bank also forecast revenue growth of 1 percent to 2 percent in 2007, citing a recovery in retail advertising as well as some benefits from consolidation among telecoms. Deutsche expects online revenue to be the major growth driver, forecasting up to 40 percent year-over-year growth compared with 2006, unlike the NAA’s own forecast, which expects growth to slow to 22 percent in 2007 in year-over-year terms – a dip from 28 percent growth in 2006.