By Marc Wilson
For many years, one of the top speakers at press
association meetings —especially in Canada — was Frank Ogden, a
futurist who billed himself as “Dr. Tomorrow.”
He was
among the very first to forewarn publishers — and leaders in other industries —
about the potential disruptions that would be caused by the intenet.
“It’s a
whole new ballgame out there,” he told audiences as early as 1990 (even before
the World Wide Web began). “Either you embrace the technological changes, or
you’ll be left behind.”
More
dramatically, he warned, “Either get on the steamroller of change, or become
part of the road.”
Too few
listened
Some even
tried to assault him. In fact, he was proud to proclaim that, by his own
estimates, more than 2,000 people had walked out on his speeches.
“I’ve had
seven coffee cups and one chair thrown at me,” he noted publicly and proudly.
“Three people even vomited.”
Many
challenged his credentials (and even his sanity).
He
conceded, “I have no academic qualifications whatsoever. That’s my biggest
asset. Instead of a Ph.D., I have an LSD.”
He’d worked
as a counselor for years in a Canadian psychiatric clinic that successfully —
he claimed — used the mind-altering drug LSD for treatments. He sampled the
drug, he said, claiming “LSD opened my mind. It allowed me to think in new
ways, to see the world differently.”
He warned
us to alter our thinking, too, with or without the aid of chemicals.
I was on
the same program with him in Canada,
in 2000 or 2001. In the makeshift green room we shared he told me privately,
“I’m nearly 80 years old. I don’t make any prediction that isn’t at least 20
years out so I won’t be around to be held accountable.” (He died in Vancouver at age 92 in
2013. Many of his predictions HAVE come true.)
Unlike Dr.
Tomorrow, many speakers at newspaper association meetings since then have
offered less-than-stellar advice.
At one
international journalism conference held in Paris in the mid-1990s, industry leaders
generally agreed that the best course of action would be to put all newspaper
content on the World Wide Web without charge. The theory was that advertising
would follow the eyeballs. Many in the newspaper industry have been trying to
put that genie back in the bottle ever since.
Then there
were those who advised raising circulation rates to make up for circulation
declines. Offer less, charge more, and ignore the competitive landscape. Offer
less in an ever-increasing competitive environment.
Much advice
was offered that the industry needed to cut its way to profitability. That
resulted in fewer and smaller pages, and smaller newsrooms.
And there
those who said, “Let’s do everything we can to protect print. Maybe the
internet will go away.”
Another
theory often ballyhooed at conventions was that the newspapers needed to do everything
possible to enhance search engine (and social media) optimization so Google,
Facebook and others could distribute the locally produced content.
That theory
worked — for Google and Facebook!
Since
Google was founded in 1998, its value has climbed to almost one trillion
dollars. Facebook, founded in 2004, now has some 2.2 billion monthly visitors
and a net worth of some $150 billion.
In the
meantime, newspapers have fared not so well.
Pew
Research says newspaper newsroom employees dropped by 45 percent from 2008 to
2017, from about 71,000 workers in 2008 to 39,000 in 2017. And since 2017, at
least a third of all large newspapers have had major layoffs.
Pew
Research also notes that total weekday circulation for U.S. daily
newspapers — both print and digital — fell 8 percent in 2016, marking the 28th
consecutive year of declines.
“If you are
not aboard the steamroller of change,” Dr. Tomorrow warned, “you stand a good
chance of being part of the road.”
Instead of
listening to Dr. Tomorrow, folks threw chairs and coffee cups at him. They
walked out of his speeches and vomited when they should have been taking notes
and taking action.
He told
them. They should have gotten aboard the steamroller.
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